Texas Rangers - 2024 MLB Team Preview & Predictions

Previewing all 30 MLB teams in preparation for the 2024 MLB Season. Analysis and predictions for every offensive starter, starting pitcher, and high-leverage bullpen arm for each club.

Mar 19, 2024

∙ Paid

World Series Winner: +1400
AL Winner: +700
AL West Division Winner: +220
To Make Playoffs: -170
Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 88

In 2023, the Texas Rangers won their first World Series in franchise history, winning all 11 road games during the postseason in a thrilling run through October. Despite losing Jacob deGrom for the season and Max Scherzer being a shell of himself by the time the biggest games of the season arrived, manager Bruce Bochy found a way to get the job done.

Texas winning only 90 games during the regular season last year categorized them as somewhat of a surprise champion, but a deeper dive into their advanced numbers suggests they weren’t far away from being a true juggernaut. Only 3 teams had a better run differential than the Rangers, and each of those teams won at least 99 games. Only the Braves and Dodgers scored more runs than the Rangers. Yet, Texas had the 3rd-worst win% (38.9%) of any team in baseball last season in games decided by 1-run.

Winning and losing 1-run games is more a matter of luck than anything else, even if that may seem counterintuitive. In 2023, all 7 teams that had won 60%+ of their 1-run games in 2022 regressed in overall record. All 4 teams that won less than 40% of their 1-run games in 2022 had an improved or identical record in 2023.

The Rangers are obviously not at full strength heading into Opening Day, with Nathaniel Lowe, Corey Seager, Josh Jung, Max Scherzer, and Jacob deGrom each dealing with injuries to varying degrees. However, this team still figures to be elite defensively, which gives them a high floor. In 2023, 6 of the top 7 defensive teams in baseball, measured by Deserved Runs Prevented (DRP), finished with at least 88 wins, with only the injury-plagued Pirates being an exception to that rule. If Texas can stay afloat until the All-Star break, they should have enough firepower to flirt with a 90-win campaign.

Below, I take a look at each projected starter on the roster in preparation for the new season.

Over 88 Regular Season Wins (-110), Caesars

Risk 0.25u

Catcher, Jonah Heim

American League MVP: +20000
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 213.5
2024 Steamer Projections: 18 HR, 64 RBI, .246 BA, 8.1 BB%, 19.5 K%, 97 wRC+
Contract: 1 year/$3.1M (2024), Free Agent: 2027

Jonah Heim has been one of the best defensive backstops in the MLB since entering the league, ranking in the 97th percentile or better in framing in each of the last three seasons. His pop time isn’t outstanding, but it’s improved since his debut, as has his blocking ability.

vs. Fastballs: 253rd in xwOBA out of 476 hitters
vs. Offspeed: 50th in xwOBA out of 234 hitters
vs. Breaking: 191st in xwOBA out of 393 hitters

Yet, his improved bat is what has helped him continue increasing his share of playing time. Heim struggled to a 57 wRC+ in 2021 and a 96 wRC+ in 2022, but posted a career-best 103 wRC+ in 2023, hitting a career-best 18 home runs (HR) while striking out in only 19.2% of his plate appearances (PA).

Heim was at his best against southpaws last season, posting a .325 batting average (BA), .856 OPS, and 134 wRC+. Overall, he still profiles as roughly league-average at the dish, but that’s more than good enough for the Rangers, considering the value he brings defensively.

First Base, Nathaniel Lowe

American League MVP: +25000
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 246.4
2024 Steamer Projections: 21 HR, 79 RBI, .268 BA, 11.4 BB%, 23.0 K%, 119 wRC+
Contract: 1 year/$7.5M (2024), Free Agent: 2027

Following a breakout 2022 campaign, Nathaniel Lowe took a step backward in 2023, but was still plenty productive, with a 114 wRC+ in 161 games.

vs. Fastballs: 179th in xwOBA out of 476 hitters
vs. Offspeed: 31st in xwOBA out of 234 hitters
vs. Breaking: 113th in xwOBA out of 393 hitters

His power regression appeared to be a direct result of a much more passive approach at the plate. In 2022, Lowe swung at 52.2% of pitches he saw, which included an 80% swing-rate on pitches in the heart of the zone. Last year, Lowe swung at only 43.8% of pitches he saw, including only 74% of pitches in the heart of the zone.

Though Lowe chased fewer pitches, his barrel%, average exit velocity, and HardHit% each regressed as a result of swinging at fewer mistake-pitches. Lowe’s 12.8 BB% ranked 26th among 212 hitters with at least 400 PA last season, but Texas probably would have been okay with fewer walks if it meant an additional 10 HR.

The good news is that Lowe’s floor seems to be established as an above-average hitter who is particularly strong against right-handed pitching (RHP). If he returns to his 2022 levels of selective-aggression, it seems more probable than not that he can hit 20 HR once again, even though he won’t play the entire season.

Lowe is currently the 26th first baseman coming off of the board in fantasy baseball drafts this spring, which seems justified considering he will start the year on the injured list due to an oblique injury. He’s best taken as a late-round flier, given how problematic those types of injuries can be for a hitter.

Second Base, Marcus Semien

American League MVP: +4000
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 25.6
2024 Steamer Projections: 28 HR, 80 RBI, .265 BA, 8.9 BB%, 16.4 K%, 116 wRC+
Contract: 7 years/$175M (2022-2028), Free Agent: 2029

Death. Taxes. Marcus Semien being in an MLB lineup. Since the beginning of 2018, Semien has played in 859 games, which is tied with Freddie Freeman for the most in baseball during that span. Filtering to include only second basemen, Semien has a healthy lead on the field in games played, and he ranks 6th in both wOBA and wRC+ at his position in that time period (min. 2,000 PA).

vs. Fastballs: 142nd in xwOBA out of 476 hitters
vs. Offspeed: 147th in xwOBA out of 234 hitters
vs. Breaking: 127th in xwOBA out of 393 hitters

Semien has been particularly valuable since escaping the pitcher-friendly confines of Oakland. Across the last three seasons, he has played in 485 of a possible 486 regular season games, hitting 100 HR and stealing 54 bases. During that stretch, he has 24 more HR than the next-best second baseman and ranks 8th in stolen bases. Only Jose Altuve, Ketel Marte, and Luiz Arraez have produced a better wOBA among second basemen (min. 1,000 PA) in that span.

Semien’s barrel% and HardHit% have regressed since peaking in 2021, but his excellent bat-to-ball skills and mature approach at the plate, in addition to his strong track record of availability, give him one of the highest floors of any player at his position. Factor in elite defense at the keystone and it’s tough to make an argument that there’s a more valuable second baseman in baseball, not named Mookie Betts.

Third Base, Josh Jung

American League MVP: +10000
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 228.9
2024 Steamer Projections: 26 HR, 81 RBI, .252 BA, 6.3 BB%, 28.5 K%, 103 wRC+
Contract: Pre-Arbitration

Prior to suffering a fractured thumb in early August last season, Josh Jung was in the midst of a breakout campaign, hitting 22 HR and posting a 119 wRC+ in his first 461 PA. However, he was clearly bothered by the injury upon his return, hitting only .196 with 1 HR and a 38 wRC+ across 54 PA to finish the regular season before reigniting in October.

vs. Fastballs: 156th in xwOBA out of 476 hitters
vs. Offspeed: 47th in xwOBA out of 234 hitters
vs. Breaking: 105th in xwOBA out of 393 hitters

A former first round draft selection, Jung has some of the best power in the game, evident from his 87th percentile average exit velocity and 82nd percentile Hard-Hit% in 2023. However, he also displays a concerning lack of discipline at the plate, which led to a 14th percentile K% and 16th percentile BB%.

In 2023, there were 29 hitters (min. 300 PA) who struck out in more than 25% of their PA with lower than a 7% walk rate. Only 8 of those hitters finished with a 110 wRC+ or better. Only 6 of those hitters finished with better than a .333 xwOBA, which was the league-average for hitters with at least 300 PA.

Jung is capable of producing 20+ HR on an annual basis for the Rangers, but it’s rare to see a player blossom into a legitimate star when they strikeout as much as Jung, without drawing many walks. The ceiling is not that high for Jung, and the floor is much lower than many people realize. His defense is elite, which provides plenty of real-life value for the Rangers, but he’s best avoided in fantasy baseball — even if he’s fully recovered from his preseason calf injury and in the Opening Day lineup.

Shortstop, Corey Seager

American League MVP: +1200
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 34.4
2024 Steamer Projections: 29 HR, 86 RBI, .294 BA, 9.7 BB%, 16.2 K%, 141 wRC+
Contract: 10 years/$325M (2022-2031), Free Agent: 2032

When healthy, there are few hitters in baseball more dangerous than Corey Seager. Despite playing in only 119 games in 2023, Seager had the 5th-most HR in the American League and finished 2nd to Shohei Ohtani in MVP voting. Seager ended the regular season ranked in the 96th percentile or better in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, and Hard-Hit% among qualified hitters.

vs. Fastballs: 4th in xwOBA out of 476 hitters
vs. Offspeed: 13th in xwOBA out of 234 hitters
vs. Breaking: 34th in xwOBA out of 393 hitters

The only problem for Seager is that he’s struggled mightily to stay on the field. Across the last three seasons, Seager has played in only 365 of a possible 486 regular season games. After having sports hernia surgery this past off-season, Seager’s availability for Opening Day in 2024 is already in doubt.

Per manager Bruce Bochy, Seager has not taken any live at-bats since the World Series, but has resumed swinging in the batting cages as he works his way back to the field. Seager’s talent is undeniable, but fantasy baseball managers would be forgiven if they choose to invest in a shortstop with a better track record of availability in their drafts this year. An ADP of 34.4 is rich for a player who could realistically miss 25% of the season, and is coming off of a relatively serious surgery.

Left Field, Evan Carter

American League MVP: +20000
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 112.6
2024 Steamer Projections: 16 HR, 63 RBI, .251 BA, 12.1 BB%, 25.2 K%, 109 wRC+
Contract: Pre-Arbitration

Evan Carter was one of many wild success stories for the Rangers during their run to the World Series last fall, but the outlook for 2024 and beyond looks a little bit less shiny.

vs. Fastballs: 136th in xwOBA out of 476 hitters

Though Carter had a 180 wRC+ in 75 PA after getting called-up last September, there are legitimate question marks about his role going forward. Carter has struggled mightily against LHP at all levels of professional baseball, making it difficult to imagine that he’s able to serve in an every day role for Texas in 2024. It was also a not-insignificant red flag that Carter struck out in 32.0% of his PA in the regular season and 26.4% of his PA in the postseason at the MLB level last year.

Carter’s rarified patience rivals some of the best walk-machines in the game, which affords him a relatively high floor as long as he continues to play strong defense in the outfield. However, we shouldn’t rush to label him as a star until we see him figure out some of the other red flags in his profile. The good news is that he’s still only 21 years old and has plenty of time left to continue improving. His career is off to a good start.

Center Field, Leody Taveras

American League MVP: +50000
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 259.6
2024 Steamer Projections: 14 HR, 58 RBI, .260 BA, 7.4 BB%, 22.0 K%, 99 wRC+
Contract: 1 year/$2.6M, Free Agent: 2028

Leody Taveras has long-been an elite defender in center field, but 2023 was the first time his bat proved adequate enough to earn him near-every day reps in the Rangers’ lineup.

vs. Fastballs: 167th in xwOBA out of 476 hitters
vs. Offspeed: 86th in xwOBA out of 234 hitters
vs. Breaking: 277th in xwOBA out of 393 hitters

Playing in a career-high 143 games last season, Taveras posted a career-best 98 wRC+, in part due to the fact that he cut his strikeout rate down to 21.1% from 25.8% in 2022 and 32.4% in 2021. For the first time in his career, Taveras dramatically improved his approach at the plate last season, swinging at more pitches in the heart of the zone while swinging at fewer pitches on the edge of the zone or out of the zone. The result was career-best numbers in average exit velocity, barrel%, and HardHit%.

Taveras doesn’t appear likely to solve his issues against LHP any time soon, but he’s played himself into an every day role with Texas going forward, thanks to his defense. Still only 24 years old, Taveras is one of the more valuable all-around center fielders in baseball.

Right Field, Adolis Garcia

American League MVP: +8000
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 95.6
2024 Steamer Projections: 30 HR, 93 RBI, .241 BA, 8.0 BB%, 28.6 K%, 105 wRC+
Contract: 2 years/$14M (2024-2025), Free Agent: 2027

In 2023, Adolis Garcia hit a career-high 39 HR and finished with a career-best 124 wRC+ in 148 games. It was his third consecutive season hitting at least 27 HR and playing in at least 91% of his team’s possible regular season contests.

vs. Fastballs: 112th in xwOBA out of 476 hitters
vs. Offspeed: 67th in xwOBA out of 234 hitters
vs. Breaking: 19th in xwOBA out of 393 hitters

The key to Garcia’s breakout campaign was a much more mature approach at the dish. Compared to 2022, he chased fewer pitches out of the strike zone and offered at fewer pitches on the edge of the strike zone. Importantly, he was still selectively aggressive when he got a pitch he could do damage with — swinging at pitches in the heart of the zone 4% more frequently than the league-average hitter.

His refined approach led to more contact on pitches in the zone, a higher barrel%, and a higher HardHit% compared to the year prior. Garica also elevated his BB% from the 21st percentile in 2022 to the 74th percentile in 2023.

Garcia’s gains appear sustainable, making him a worthwhile investment for fantasy baseball managers at his current ADP. He’s likely the best value after Mike Trout among outfielders.

Designated Hitter, Wyatt Langford

American League MVP: N/A
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 224.3
2024 Steamer Projections: 24 HR, 84 RBI, .265 BA, 11.3 BB%, 22.6 K%, 125 wRC+
Contract: Minor League

Though Jackson Holliday is likely to earn the most media headlines among MLB rookies in 2024, Wyatt Langford might be the most MLB-ready hitter to enter the league this summer. Langford flexed his elite power potential last year in a meteoric rise through the minor leagues — hitting 10 HR in 200 PA after being drafted in the first round last summer.

Langford also possesses an elite understanding of the strike zone for his age, which could make his transition to the big leagues more smooth than is typical for a 22 year old. According to General Manager Chris Young, “Langford has done everything he can to make the team” out of Spring Training. Even if he’s not with the team on Opening Day, it’s more probable than not that he’s in the Texas lineup by the end of April.

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