NFL Week 7 Stats, Notes & Betting Primer
The Commish looks at this week's slate, delivering injury analysis, betting trends, and notes you need to know ahead of this weekend.
***This document will be updated again before the 4:05 p.m. slate begins***
Denver Broncos (-3) vs. New Orleans Saints, O/U 37
Game Preview: https://rotogrinders.com/articles/broncos-vs-saints-prediction-4074465
Player Props: https://rotogrinders.com/articles/broncos-vs-saints-nfl-player-props-4074447
New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-6), O/U 42
Player Props: https://rotogrinders.com/articles/patriots-vs-jaguars-nfl-player-props-4075029
Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons (-3), O/U 51
Player Prop: DK Metcalf o68.5 Receiving Yards (-115), DraftKings
TD Scorer: Kyle Pitts (+200), FanDuel
Side/Total: Seahawks (+3)
ATL returned LB Nate Landman to the field in Week 6 for the first time since the team’s season opener. He led the defense with 8 tackles against CAR and should be good to go for Week 7.
LB Troy Anderson returned to practice on Friday for the first time since suffering a knee injury in Week 4. He was ATL leading tackler through 4 games.
SEA has downgraded RB Kenneth Walker to questionable with an illness. RB Zach Charbonnet received all 5 of the team’s red zone carries and both of their goal line attempts that went to a running back with Walker out in Week 2 and Week 3 this season.
SEA has ruled out starting RT Stone Forsythe for Sunday, but that might actually be a net positive, considering his ghastly 11.8% pressure rate allowed so far this fall.
SEA will be without CB Tyriq Woolen for the second week in a row. He will be joined on the sidelines this week by CB Tre Brown and S Rayshawn Jenkins. SEA secondary unit isn’t in great shape ahead of kickoff, but their defensive front has everyone back healthy outside of EDGE Uchenna Nwosu.
Game Day Notes:
ATL has 5 sacks through their first six games — tied for the fewest for any team since the 2014 Rams, per Evan Abrams.
SEA defense has allowed a 49.3%+ success rate each of the last 3 weeks. Overall, their pass defense ranks 32nd in EPA/play and 30th in success rate since Week 4.
Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills (-9.5), O/U 41
Player Prop: Josh Allen o0.5 Interceptions (+120), Bet365
TD Scorer: Tony Pollard (+125), Bet365
Side/Total: Titans (+9.5)
RB Tyjae Spears has been ruled out for Week 7. Spears has accounted for 33 of the 34 rush attempts given to non Tony Pollard running backs in 2024 for TEN, including all of the leftover red zone carries. Pollard should have little competition for touches near the end zone this weekend.
QB Mason Rudolph will start for TEN in Week 7. Rudolph is an upgrade over Will Levis, but Rudolph posted a negative EPA/play and only a 38.9% success rate in Week 4 against MIA. This passing attack is still likely to be limited.
This is the healthiest that BUF has been all season. They will return RB James Cook to the field after he missed Week 6. DT Ed Oliver will play for the first time since Week 4, giving BUF defensive front a much-needed boost.
Game Day Notes:
BUF is 9-17-1 ATS across the L3 seasons when favored by 4+ points. Josh Allen is 31-5 SU in his career when favored by 7+ points, including 22-2 at home, per Evan Abrams.
Josh Allen doesn’t have an interception yet in 2024, but that has more to do with luck than anything else. He has the 2nd-highest turnover-worthy play rate among quarterbacks with 100+ dropbacks this season.
Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) vs. Cleveland Browns, O/U 41.5
Player Prop: Nick Chubb u39.5 Rushing Yards (-115), DraftKings
TD Scorer: Zack Moss (+195), FanDuel
Side/Total: Under 41.5
CIN is the healthiest they have been at any point in 2024 on the defensive side of the ball. According to Jay Morrison, CIN activated CB DJ Ivey from the PUP list earlier this week as well, giving them additional quality depth in the secondary unit.
CLE activated RB Nick Chubb and S Juan Thornhill from injured reserve earlier this week, and both players are expected to suit up on Sunday. From 2019 to 2022, only Derrick Henry had more rushing yards than Chubb and nobody had more yards per attempt than Chubb in that span. Thornhill is one of the best safeties in the entire NFL. He ranked 12th/68 players at his position in coverage grade last year, per PFF, and 7th-best as a run defender. He led CLE with a team-high 9 tackles in Week 1 this season before getting hurt.
CLE could also be getting back starting C Ethan Pocic and starting LB Jordan Hicks this week after both players missed Week 6. Hicks was ranked 27th/74 linebackers in run defense grade after 3 weeks before getting hurt.
Game Day Notes:
CIN pass defense ranked 29th in EPA/play and 28th in success rate from Week 1 to Week 3. They have improved to 19th in EPA/play and 21st in success rate since Week 4. They held Andy Dalton to 220 passing yards in Week 4 and Daniel Jones to 205 passing yards, with CB DJ Turner and CB Mike Hilton both healthy and on the field together.
CLE is the first team to score fewer than 20 points and throw for fewer than 200 passing yards in each of their first 6 games since 1999, per Evan Abrams.
This season, Deshaun Watson ranks 32nd in EPA/play and 32nd in success rate among 32 quarterbacks with 100+ plays. Watson is the only starting quarterback this season to not have a single game with better than a 43% success rate.
Houston Texans vs. Green Bay Packers (-3), O/U 47.5
Player Prop: Emmanuel Wilson u6.5 Rush Attempts (-130), Bet365
TD Scorer: Josh Jacobs (-110), DraftKings
Side/Total: Packers (-3)
HOU will be without 4 defensive starters on Sunday afternoon, including their #1 and #2 tacklers. LB Christian Harris and DT Mario Edwards are currently on injured reserve as well, so there is an argument to be made that HOU is even more thin on the defensive side of the ball. They face an uphill battle against a strong Green Bay offense in this spot.
GB is relatively healthy heading into this matchup, with the lone exception being DT Devonte Wyatt. However, that’s an extremely minimal loss, compared to the HOU injury report.
Game Day Notes:
According to Evan Abrams, teams are 7-16-1 ATS across the L10 years when playing in Green Bay on the second leg of a road trip. Those teams are 3-7 ATS since 2020.
Jordan Love had the 2nd-best EPA/play of any starting quarterback in Week 6 and appears to be mostly healthy after an early-season scare that forced him to miss multiple games. His completion rate and success rate are lower than what we saw pre-injury, but that is likely a result of him taking more shots deep downfield.
Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts (-3), O/U 43.5
Player Prop: Anthony Richardson o15.5 Completions (-114), FanDuel
TD Scorer: Josh Downs (+300), DraftKings
Side/Total: Colts (-3)
MIA will return S Jordan Poyer to the field in Week 7, but that loss is cancelled out by the absence of S Jevon Holland, who is arguably even more important to the team’s secondary unit. MIA will also be without EDGE Emmanuel Ogbah, who is tied for the team lead in sacks through 6 games.
IND will have Anthony Richardson back under center this weekend. He is a high-upside, low-floor quarterback who loves to throw the ball deep. He could be in for a big day if MIA struggles to get pressure with Ogbah out.
IND has given 6 of the team’s 7 goal line carries to Trey Sermon across the L2 weeks with Jonathan Taylor out. The return of Richardson could lead to a vultured touchdown, but Sermon is clearly the running back to invest in here.
Game Day Notes:
According to Evan Abrams, MIA has scored 21 points or fewer in 7 of 8 games without Tua Tagovailoa in the Mike McDaniel era. They are 2-6 SU in those contests.
Anthony Richardson had the highest aDOT (13.0) of any quarterback with 75+ dropbacks in 2024. Brock Purdy (10.2) is a distant 2nd in this category.
Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings (-1.5), O/U 50.5
Player Prop: Jared Goff o23.5 Completions (-114), FanDuel
TD Scorer: Sam LaPorta (+240), FanDuel
Side/Total: Vikings (-1)
DET has a pair of massive injuries ahead of kickoff on Sunday. Starting RG Kevin Zeitler has been ruled out. He’s been one of the league’s best offensive lineman once again early in 2024. DET will also be without the NFL’s top pass rusher, EDGE Aidan Hutchinson. Hutchinson leads DET with 7.5 sacks — no other member of this defense has more than 2.5 sacks this fall. If DET can’t get pressure on Sam Darnold, it could be a long day for this unit.
MIN ranks 10th in defensive DVOA against tight ends this year, but they could be more vulnerable in this area of the field in Week 7, with LB Blake Cashman ruled out. Cashman has been excellent against the run and in coverage to begin 2024, leading MIN in tackles and tied for the team lead in passes defensed. He is a big loss for this unit.
Game Day Notes:
The Vikings are 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS full game, in the first half, and in the first quarter to begin 2024. Their team totals are also 5-0. This is the first time since 2008 that a team has been spotless in each of those markets this long into a regular season.
MIN has 83 pressures through 5 games this year, which is the 2nd-most for any team since 2018, per Evan Abrams.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) vs. New York Giants, O/U 42.5
Player Prop: Daniel Jones o26.5 Rushing Yards (-110), FanDuel
TD Scorer: Devin Singletary (+195), FanDuel
Side/Total: Under 42
PHI suffered a tremendous loss earlier this week, placing star LT Jordan Mailata on injured reserve. Mailata has allowed only a 4.3% pressure rate in 2024, ranking 1st/74 T in pass block grade, per PFF.
NYG will get RB Devin Singletary and WR Malik Nabers back for Week 7. NYG also lost their starting LT Andrew Thomas to injured reserve earlier this week, however, so there could be some issues with pass protection.
Game Day Notes:
According to Evan Abrams, teams coming off of a game in which they scored 7 points or fewer at home are 37-27-2 against the first half spread the following week. PHI is 0-5 against the first half spread to begin 2024. This is an instance of two macros systems colliding.
Jalen Hurts has the highest turnover-worthy play rate of any quarterback in the NFL this season, minimum 100+ dropbacks.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Rams (-7), O/U 43.5
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Carolina Panthers vs. Washington Commanders (-8), O/U 51.5
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers (-1.5), O/U 47
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New York Jets (-1.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, O/U 39
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Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, O/U 39
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Los Angeles Chargers (-2) vs. Arizona Cardinals, O/U 44
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