New York Mets - 2025 MLB Team Preview & Predictions
Previewing all 30 MLB teams in preparation for the 2025 MLB Season. Analysis and predictions for every offensive starter, starting pitcher, and high-leverage bullpen arm for each club.
2025 New York Mets - Future Prediction
World Series Winner: +1200
NL Winner: +650
NL East Division Winner: +220
To Make Playoffs: -250
Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 90.5
Last year was supposed to be a “transition year” for the Mets. In 2023, the team entered Spring Training with a World Series or bust mindset, but injuries and a few other factors contributed to an underwhelming 47-53 record through 100 games, prompting the front office to be the league’s biggest sellers at the trade deadline. Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer were among the talent shipped out of town as the team turned their focus to 2025 and beyond.
Well, they simply couldn’t help themselves in 2024, making a run to the NLCS and coming within 2 games of reaching the Fall Classic. The offense finished the regular season ranked 7th in runs scored, 6th in HR, and 7th in wRC+. Seven different hitters (min. 300 PA) had a 102 wRC+ or better. This winter, the Mets retained key contributors Pete Alonso and Jesse Winker in free agency, in addition to adding the top hitter on the open market — Juan Soto.
The starting pitching in 2024 was led by a collection of unheralded names, with Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana, and Luis Severino combining for 94 starts. The rotation ranked 12th in ERA, 20th in FIP, and 17th in WHIP. The arm barn was equally competent, if not uninspiring, ranking 17th in ERA, 12th in FIP, and 17th in WHIP. New York retained Manaea in free agency, while also adding Clay Holmes, Frankie Montas, and Griffin Canning on relatively low-risk deals.
Yet, the new year is off to an inauspicious start, with Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas already dealing with injuries that are likely to keep them off of the Opening Day roster, and throw a wrinkle in the Mets’ plans to use a 6-man rotation to begin the season. Starting catcher Francisco Alvarez will also miss the beginning of the year, meaning that New York will be without multiple rotation members and the guy who is primarily responsible for managing the staff.
Entering 2025, the mindset around the organization has shifted back to World Series or bust. The World Series part might have to wait until at least 2026, though, with injuries already piling up and the team having some legitimate question marks at a few key infield positions. The vibes in Queens were great last summer, in part, because the roster overperformed expectations so dramatically. Faced with much higher expectations this time around, repeating last year’s 28-16 record in 1-run games and making a run for the division could be significantly more difficult.
Below, I take a look at each projected starter on the roster in preparation for the new season.
Under 90.5 Regular Season Wins (-110), DraftKings
Catcher, Francisco Alvarez
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 147.3
2025 Steamer Projections: 15 HR, 46 RBI, .236 BA, 9.2 BB%, 23.4 K%, 112 wRC+
Contract: Pre-Arbitration
In 2024, Francisco Alvarez was limited to only 100 games due to a torn ligament in his thumb, which required surgery. In 2025, he will once again miss significant time, suffering a broken left hamate bone during Spring Training that is expected to sideline him for 6-8 weeks.
vs. Fastballs: 108th in xwOBA out of 423 hitters
vs. Breaking: 329th in xwOBA out of 333 hitters
Alvarez, once a top-10 prospect in the entire sport, has now dealt with major injuries to his left hand in consecutive years. After hitting 25 HR in 123 games as a rookie, Alvarez hit only 11 HR in 100 games last summer. His average exit velocity and hard-hit% both trended in the wrong direction, and his barrel% was nearly cut in half year-over-year.
It’s not uncommon to see a hitter’s contact-quality metrics deteriorate when they deal with hand injuries. Typically, a full offseason of rest and rehab allows a player to return to full health the following season, and their contact-quality metrics follow suit. It’s unusual, however, to see a player suffer such significant injuries to the same hand in this short of a period of time. It’s enough to wonder if there will be any long-term impacts on his ability to hit for above-average power.
Luis Torrens will likely assume starting catcher responsibilities in Alvarez’s absence to begin 2025. Torrens batted .229, with 3 HR and a 90 wRC+ in 48 games last summer. He owns a .229 BA and 81 wRC+ in 123 games since the beginning of 2022. This is a notable loss for the Mets.
First Base, Pete Alonso
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 48.6
2025 Steamer Projections: 36 HR, 100 RBI, .238 BA, 10.3 BB%, 23.4 K%, 124 wRC+
Contract: 1 year/$30M (2025), plus 2026 player option
By Pete Alonso standards, 2024 was a disappointing overall season. Then again, it’s always going to be unfair to compare anything Alonso does to 2019, when he hit 53 HR as a rookie. Last summer, Alonso was still plenty valuable.
He was 1 of only 4 players to appear in all 162 regular season games, and he posted a 120 wRC+ or better for the 6th consecutive year to begin his career. His 34 HR ranked 12th in all of baseball, and only 4 first basemen had a higher wRC+ than Alonso.
vs. Fastballs: 99th in xwOBA out of 423 hitters
vs. Offspeed: 8th in xwOBA out of 148 hitters
vs. Breaking: 220th in xwOBA out of 333 hitters
That being said, even while being productive in 2024, Alonso did set career-worsts for a full-season in HR, RBI, OPS, ISO, and wOBA. His batted-ball profile also regressed, trading 5% worth of flyballs for groundballs — far from ideal for someone who doesn’t move well, and who brings nearly all of his offensive value by hitting the ball over the outfield fence.
Thus, when he hit the open market this past winter, there was understandably not a flood of teams rushing to sign him to a long-term deal. In fact, there might not have been any teams who came to him with that type of offer, given that he ended up settling for a 1-year, “prove-it” deal to return to the Mets.
In 2025, Alonso will have another opportunity to earn a big payday, if he can prove that his declining production from last summer was not a harbinger of things to come in his early-30s. At the top of his to-do list should be proving that his negative trends against breaking balls can be reversed.
He still possesses some of the best bat speed in the game and good swing decisions for someone with his size and power. Even if 2025 isn’t the walk-year Alonso is hoping for, he’s a good bet to be an above-average producer once again for the Mets. Of course, there is potential for much more than just above-average, as well.
Second Base, Jeff McNeil
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 405.9
2025 Steamer Projections: 9 HR, 52 RBI, .271 BA, 6.7 BB%, 12.6 K%, 108 wRC+
Contract: 4 years/$50M (2023-2026), plus 2027 club option
Jeff McNeil won a batting title in 2022, hitting .326. but that’s increasingly looking like his peak-level production. In 2023, he hit only .270, with his average exit velocity, barrel%, hard-hit%, and line-drive% all trending in the wrong direction. Last year, McNeil once again saw his line-drive% decline, dragging his once enviable BABIP down with it — from .353 in 2022 to .256 in 2024.
vs. Fastballs: 311th in xwOBA out of 423 hitters
vs. Breaking: 268th in xwOBA out of 333 hitters
Perhaps most concerning for the Mets is that McNeil has seemingly lost all of his offensive value against southpaws. After hitting .312 with a 123 wRC+ against LHP in 2022, he hit only .294 with a 114 wRC+ against LHP in 2023. Last year, he hit only .234 with a 78 wRC+ in same-sided matchups.
Entering 2025, McNeil has posted an average exit velocity less than 90 mph in every year since pandemic. He’s also seen his line-drive% dip each of the last three seasons, to the point that it was below the league average in 2024. Part of his declining batted-ball profile is likely related to swinging at more and more pitches out of the zone, which are harder to square-up.
Last year, there were only 45 hitters (min. 400 PA) to have an average exit velocity below 90 mph and a line-drive% worse than the league average — 41 of them finished with a 109 wRC+ or worse, 27 of them finished with a 99 wRC+ or worse, and 15 of them finished with an 89 wRC+ or worse.
At best, McNeil starts to hit more line-drives and likely settles in as a slightly above-average bat for the Mets against RHP. At worst, New York has to hide him from southpaws, with his rather large contract being the team’s primary motivator to write his name on the lineup card in any capacity. His best days are almost assuredly behind him, especially if he continues to recklessly expand the zone on a consistent basis.
Third Base, Mark Vientos
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 91.1
2025 Steamer Projections: 32 HR, 92 RBI, .249 BA, 7.9 BB%, 28.2 K%, 119 wRC+
Contract: Pre-Arbitration
Prior to 2024, Mark Vientos had 10 HR and an underwhelming 68 wRC+ in 81 games at the MLB level. He struck out in 30.3% of those PA and didn’t walk nearly enough, or hit enough bombs to justify such swing-and-miss issues. Of course, Mets’ fans know the next part of the story, with Vientos connecting for 27 HR and posting a 133 wRC+ in his age-24 campaign.
Though it’s tempting to see what Vientos, a former 2nd round draft pick, did last year and anoint him as a franchise cornerstone for the next decade, it’s worth noting that his breakout season wasn’t without its flaws. Namely, he still chased way too many pitches out of the strike zone, and his bat-to-ball skills were among the worst in the big leagues — only 8 hitters (min. 400 PA) had a worse contact% on swings at pitches in the zone.
vs. Fastballs: 23rd in xwOBA out of 423 hitters
vs. Breaking: 276th in xwOBA out of 333 hitters
Vientos also did nearly all of his damage against fastballs, while simultaneously posting a ghastly .169 BA and .257 wOBA against breaking pitches.
Doing damage against fastballs is more of a prerequisite to be a star in the big leagues than it is a skill that will make a player standout long-term. Even in only 111 games last season, it was evident that pitchers were learning how to exploit his obvious weaknesses. Vientos saw his wRC+ incrementally decrease in every month in 2024, with his BB% and K% ending up over 30% apart from one another in September and October.
Vientos is still only 25 years, so there is time to improve his swing decisions and defensive capabilities. However, it remains to be seen how patient the Mets will be with him if he experiences early struggles in 2025, given the team’s enormous payroll and their clear championship-or-bust mentality heading into the new season. There is considerable risk for anyone counting on Vientos to replicate his breakout showing from last summer.
Shortstop, Francisco Lindor
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 14.8
2025 Steamer Projections: 28 HR, 81 RBI, .257 BA, 9.1 BB%, 19.0 K%, 122 wRC+
Contract: 10 years/$341M (2022-2031), Free Agent: 2032
Ahead of Opening Day in 2024, I wrote that Francisco Lindor was “one of the most valuable players in the MLB” and mentioned that he was criminally underpriced at 40:1 to win NL MVP honors. Things didn’t look great when Lindor had an 80 wRC+ through the first-half of May, but most of his underlying metrics at that point suggested that he had simply been unlucky.
Well, from that point on, his luck definitely turned around, and allowed his talent to showcase itself. From May 17 to the end of the regular season, Lindor had a 159 wRC+, hitting 26 HR and stealing 23 bases in 109 games. The end result was good enough for a 2nd place finish in NL MVP voting. He finished 1 SB shy of his second consecutive 30-30 season. Still, he became only the 4th player since 2000 to have 30+ HR and 29+ SB in back-to-back years — an impressive accomplishment, if your brain will allow you to remove the round-number bias, temporarily.
vs. Fastballs: 37th in xwOBA out of 423 hitters
vs. Offspeed: 40th in xwOBA out of 148 hitters
vs. Breaking: 18th in xwOBA out of 333 hitters
After he finally got going in 2024, Lindor had seemingly no vulnerability at the plate. He was 1 of 7 players in the MLB who ranked in the top-40 in xwOBA against all major pitch types. He crushed RHP and LHP, once again proving himself as one of the premier switch-hitters in the game. Lindor’s batted-ball profile improved again, as well, improving upon his line-drive%, barrel%, and hard-hit% from the previous year.
He did all of the above, while also ranking in the 99th percentile in Outs Above Average (OAA) at the hardest non-catching defensive position on the diamond. Lindor is undoubtedly one of the most valuable players in all of baseball, and he impacts the game in significantly more ways than his new mega-star teammate, Juan Soto. Lindor might not be viewed as the face of the Mets’ franchise anymore, but he’s still their most impactful player.
Left Field, Brandon Nimmo
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 168.0
2025 Steamer Projections: 17 HR, 68 RBI, .252 BA, 11.2 BB%, 21.8 K%, 119 wRC+
Contract: 8 years/$162M (2023-2030), Free Agent: 2031
Last year, Brandon Nimmo had his least productive season since taking over an everyday role in New York’s outfield. He still hit 23 HR and drove-in a career-high 90 runs, but his 109 wRC+ was considerably worse than the 131 wRC+ he had posted across the prior two seasons. However, plantar fasciitis likely played a role in his regression.
vs. Fastballs: 117th in xwOBA out of 423 hitters
vs. Offspeed: 84th in xwOBA out of 148 hitters
vs. Breaking: 170th in xwOBA out of 333 hitters
The less optimistic spin on Nimmo’s 2024 was that he simply didn’t play well, and that he regressed in areas of his game that had nothing to do with a foot injury. He still walked at a high rate and exhibited relatively good swing decisions, but he chased pitches out of the zone more frequently than he ever had in his career. His contact-quality metrics were not significantly impacted by more swings at bad pitches, but that fact is an exception to the rule.
Since 2022, Nimmo has incrementally become more aggressive (not in a good way), with each passing season. His increased swing% at pitches outside of the zone has not been met with a commensurate increase on swing% at pitches in the heart of the plate. As a result, his K% has gone up 6.6% since 2022.
It’s possible that Nimmo returns to full health in 2025 and regains his form as one of the most underrated players in the game. It’s also possible that the best days of his career are behind him, entering his age-32 campaign. Nimmo promises to continue grinding out long at-bats, hitting a fair number of HR, and stealing a few bases this summer, but his star may be beginning to fade ever so slightly.
Center Field, Tyrone Taylor
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 501.3
2025 Steamer Projections: 10 HR, 37 RBI, .236 BA, 5.8 BB%, 23.3 K%, 96 wRC+
Contract: 1 year/$3M (2025), Free Agent: 2027
If the Mets have one salient area of weakness in their lineup heading into 2025, it’s their plans for center field. Last year, the team split those duties primarily between Tyrone Taylor and Harrison Bader, but neither player was overly impressive with the stick. The primary value derived from the position-tandem was Bader’s exceptional defense, ranking in the 92nd percentile in fielding run value.
Bader departed for Minnesota in free agency, leaving Taylor and Jose Siri as the team’s two options in center field entering 2025.
vs. Fastballs: 61st in xwOBA out of 423 hitters
vs. Breaking: 230th in xwOBA out of 333 hitters
Taylor was adequate in 130 games last year for New York, but profiles better as a backup on a contending team. In 4 seasons in which he’s played 81+ games, he’s never posted better than a 107 wRC+, striking out too much and walking too little for him to be a preferred staple in a team’s lineup. He’s also struggled to hit non-fastballs throughout his career, limiting his offensive ceiling to average, at best.
Siri is a comparable defensive option to Bader, with more offensive upside. Siri has elite speed and plus-power potential, but his bat-to-ball skills are among the worst in the big leagues. In 356 career MLB games, he owns a 35.8% strikeout rate.
In short, expect the Mets’ center field defense to be strong once again, with Taylor and Siri likely combining to produce adequate, albeit unspectacular numbers offensively.
Right Field, Juan Soto
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 7.6
2025 Steamer Projections: 35 HR, 96 RBI, .282 BA, 18.9 BB%, 16.6 K%, 169 wRC+
Contract: 15 years/$765M (2025-2039), Free Agent: 2040
Since debuting with the Nationals as a 19-year old in 2018, Juan Soto has consistently flirted with the difference between patience and passivity. Soto, who has never walked in fewer than 16.0% of his PA in a single season, consistently ranks among the best hitters in the game in terms of not swinging at pitches out of the strike zone. However, such a patient approach also necessitates that Soto watch a few too many pitches float past him, only to land in the heart of the zone.
vs. Fastballs: 1st in xwOBA out of 423 hitters
vs. Offspeed: 28th in xwOBA out of 148 hitters
vs. Breaking: 20th in xwOBA out of 333 hitters
Of course, Soto’s lack of consistent aggression is just about the only thing that someone could nit-pick in his offensive profile — and even that’s only a debatable critique. He’s coming off of the best season of his career, in which he hit 41 HR and finished with a 180 wRC+. He was 1 of only 7 hitters in the game to rank in the top-40 in xwOBA against all pitch types, and he was 1 of only 3 hitters (min. 400 PA) to end the year with more walks than strikeouts. He also had one of the most impressive at-bats of 2024, given the stakes, ending a 7-pitch duel against Hunter Gaddis with a momentus home run to send the Yankees to their first World Series in 15 years.
His baserunning and defense are among the worst in the game for a player of Soto’s status, however. His defense in particular is something that is overlooked when talking about his overall impact on winning. That tends to happen when a player is only 25 years old and consistently posting some of the best offensive numbers in the game. Soto has his flaws, but he’s definitely the guy fans want at the plate with their season hanging in the balance. There is value in that, apparently close to $800M worth of value.
Designated Hitter, Jesse Winker
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 414.0
2025 Steamer Projections: 11 HR, 44 RBI, .242 BA, 13.6 BB%, 21.5 K%, 117 wRC+
Contract: 1 year/$7.5M (2025), Free Agent: 2026
Jesse Winker had a perfectly fine 2024 campaign, finishing with a nice bounce-back 118 wRC+ after struggling mightily in an injury-plagued 2023 season that saw him deal with back spasms and a cervical strain. That being said, it’s hard to ignore how he played with the Mets after being acquired midseason.
Winker hit 11 HR and collected 14 SB in 101 games with Washington, posting a 125 wRC+ in the process. He walked in 14.0% of his PA while running a K% near the league average. In 44 games with New York, however, he looked like a completely different player. He had only 3 HR, didn’t swipe a single bag, and saw his BB% nearly cut in half. His average exit velocity, barrel%, and hard-hit% each regressed after arriving in Queens. The results were particularly hard to make sense of in the context that he actually exhibited better plate discipline and better bat-to-ball skills after the trade.
vs. Fastballs: 235th in xwOBA out of 423 hitters
vs. Breaking: 70th in xwOBA out of 333 hitters
Nevertheless, he showed the Mets enough to get welcomed back on a 1-year deal to make another run at the pennant. He figures to earn plenty of at-bats at Designated Hitter as the strong side of a platoon in that role. If he can stay healthy, he’s an above average bat in a New York lineup that has the potential to do a lot of damage in 2025, especially against RHP.
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