MLB Slate Preview - July 7
The Commish provides relevant information for today's slate to help inform decision-making related to betting, DFS, and fantasy baseball.
Each day, this piece will be a quick look at the slate’s starting pitchers, sorted by K%, WHIP, and FIP, to help you get a quick glance at who is on the bump and how they relate to their peers. I will also include L14 splits for team offenses against right-handed pitching (RHP) and L30 day splits for team offenses against LHP.
Lucky / Unlucky Pitchers (L30)
LUCKY - Due for negative regression
(BOS) Kutter Crawford: .170 BABIP, 85.9 LOB%
(TOR) Jose Berrios: .217 BABIP, 70.9 LOB%
(TEX) Nathan Eovaldi: .225 BABIP, 75.0 LOB%
(ATL) Reynaldo Lopez: .300 BABIP, 95.0 LOB%
UNLUCKY - Due for positive regression
(SD) Dylan Cease: .410 BABIP, 67.6 LOB%
Over the course of an entire season, BABIP and LOB% have far more to do with luck than skill, meaning that even the best pitchers will have a BABIP and LOB% close to the league average. The same can be said for less talented pitchers -- even the worst pitchers in baseball will typically run a BABIP and LOB% close to the league average.
In 2023, the league average BABIP was .293 (min. 100 IP). Of the 127 pitchers to throw at least 100 IP, 74 finished with a BABIP within 20 points of the league average and 102 finished with a BABIP within 30 points of the league average. The league average LOB% was 73.4% -- 92 of 127 pitchers (min. 100 IP) finished with a LOB% within 5% of the league average.
Thus, when a pitcher has a prolonged stretch with a BABIP or LOB% that deviates dramatically from the league average, he's likely due for regression to the mean.
*LEAGUE AVERAGES
.290 BABIP
72.2% LOB
Today’s Starting Pitchers - K% L30
21.6 K% - League Average
7.1 BB% - League Average
Today’s Starting Pitchers - WHIP L30
1.29 WHIP - League Average
Today’s Starting Pitchers - FIP L30
4.59 ERA - League Average
4.64 FIP - League Average
Today’s Starting Pitchers - Barrel% L30
9.5 Barrel% - League Average
Today’s Starting Pitchers - Stuff+ L30
95 Stuff+ - League Average
In 2023, Stuff+ had a stronger correlation (0.57) with K% than it did with any run prevention metrics. Consequently, this metric is best utilized to evaluate whether or not a pitcher has an arsenal that is capable of generating swings and misses -- which, of course, give the pitcher a better chance to record strikeouts. A higher Stuff+ translates to MORE potential for strikeouts.
Today’s Starting Pitchers - Z-Contact% L30
63.5 O-Contact% - League Average
86.8 Z-Contact% - League Average
Today’s Starting Pitchers - Called Strike% L30
63.0 F-Strike% - League Average
16.3 Called Strike% - League Average
10.8 Swinging Strike% - League Average
27.1 CSW% - League Average