Miami Marlins - 2025 MLB Team Preview & Predictions
Previewing all 30 MLB teams in preparation for the 2025 MLB Season. Analysis and predictions for every offensive starter, starting pitcher, and high-leverage bullpen arm for each club.
2025 Miami Marlins - Future Prediction
World Series Winner: +50000
NL Winner: +25000
NL East Division Winner: +30000
To Make Playoffs: +2200
Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 63.5
Last season, the Marlins lost 100 games for the first time since 2019. They ended the year ranked 27th in runs scored, 27th in wRC+, and 27th in HR at the plate. Their starting rotation ranked 29th in ERA, 30th in FIP, and 29th in WHIP. Only Oakland and Colorado had a lower K%. Only the historically bad White Sox and the Angels allowed a higher BB%. The bullpen was the only somewhat respectable unit on the team’s roster.
Not all of it was truly Miami’s fault. They didn’t have Sandy Alcantara or Eury Perez healthy. Early-season breakout candidate Ryan Weathers landed on the injured list and missed considerable time. As a result, 12 different pitchers made at least 6 starts for the Marlins in 2024.
That being said, the organization doesn’t get to fully evade blame. The team’s offense had only 2 players (min. 300 PA) finish the year with better than a 100 wRC+ — and one of them was traded this past winter to the Rangers. This is the same franchise that once had Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, and J.T. Realmuto at the same time. Stanton played a pivotal role in helping the Yankees reach the World Series last October. Yelich was having one of the best seasons of his career in 2024 prior to a midsummer back injury. Ozuna finished the season 4th in NL MVP voting.
Entering 2025, there is arguably no team in baseball less committed to trying to win games this season. There have already been rumors about Sandy Alcantara being on a workload restriction, hoping to keep him healthy enough to trade to a contender in July. Miami’s only notable free agent acquisition was Cal Quantrill, who owns an ERA north of 5.00 since the beginning of 2023.
Miami has the lowest projected Opening Day payroll in baseball this season, and they don’t have a loaded farm system anymore, either. Eury Perez could be a big addition to the team’s rotation, but he isn’t expected back until around the All-Star break, at which point the team will likely be far out of contention for a playoff spot. The offense once again looks anemic.
This could be the first time in franchise history that the Marlins lose 100 games in back-to-back seasons.
Below, I take a look at each projected starter on the roster in preparation for the new season.
Under 63.5 Regular Season Wins (-120), DraftKings
Catcher, Nick Fortes
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 505.9
2025 Steamer Projections: 8 HR, 32 RBI, .237 BA, 5.8 BB%, 16.0 K%, 81 wRC+
Contract: 1 year/$1.9M (2025), Free Agent: 2029
Nick Fortes is a solid defensive catcher who can block well, doesn’t lose strikes with his framing, and does a good job controlling the running game. That being said, even by the extremely low offensive standards for modern catchers, Nick Fortes is a liability with the stick.
vs. Fastballs: 410th in xwOBA out of 423 hitters
vs. Breaking: 196th in xwOBA out of 333 hitters
In 2024, he was completely overwhelmed by fastballs and showed only marginally more aptitude against breaking stuff. Since the beginning of 2023, he owns a 54 wRC+, which ranks 322nd out of 324 hitters with 500+ PA in that span. Only Martin Maldonado and Tim Anderson have been less productive while playing more than half of their team’s games.
Fortes is likely to be the team’s starting catcher on Opening Day in 2025, but Liam Hicks and top prospect Agustin Ramirez both offer far more upside at the position, offensively. If either Hicks or Ramirez can show adequate growth defensively early this year, they are likely to be given opportunities to earn a sizable role at the MLB level.
First Base, Matt Mervis
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 487.0
2025 Steamer Projections: 14 HR, 45 RBI, .221 BA, 9.0 BB%, 28.2 K%, 90 wRC+
Contract: Pre-Arbitration
Not too long ago, Matt Mervis was widely regarded as one of the top prospects in all of baseball after he led the minor leagues with 119 RBI and 78 extra-base hits in 2022. However, he’s looked like anything but a top prospect in limited time at the big-league level, posting a .155 BA and 34 wRC+ in 36 games.
Debuting in 2023, Mervis was hyper-aggressive at the plate, swinging more often than the league average hitter, including at pitches out of the strike zone. Pitchers feasted on his indiscretion, striking him out in 32.3% of his trips to the plate. In an even smaller sample size in 2024, Mervis was even more aggressive, swinging 4% more frequently than the league average, and chasing at the same irresponsible rate.
After failing to make a positive impact in each of his first two MLB stints, Mervis has lost the opportunity to earn a full-time job in The Show. Reportedly, the Marlins will be using him as the strong side of a platoon at first base to open 2025, with Jonah Bride sliding into the lineup when Miami faces a southpaw. The decision is understandable, given Mervis’ career 52.4% strikeout rate against LHP in 21 PA. Even in a small sample size, that’s a frightening statistic to behold.
The decision to platoon Bride could prove equally ineffective. In his career, Bride has reverse splits, posting a .253 BA and 110 wRC+ against RHP, compared to a .195 BA and 59 wRC+ against LHP. If Mervis gets off to a poor start this April, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the team expanded Bride’s opportunities, allowing him a chance to build on a breakout campaign in which he hit 11 HR and posted a 133 wRC+ after the All-Star break in 2024.
Second Base, Otto Lopez
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 346.7
2025 Steamer Projections: 6 HR, 43 RBI, .276 BA, 6.7 BB%, 17.4 K%, 98 wRC+
Contract: Pre-Arbitration
Among 207 hitters to log 400+ PA in 2024, Otto Lopez ranked 31st in contact% on swings at pitches in the zone. He didn’t hit many of those balls particularly hard, ranking in only the 26th percentile in average exit velocity, and 21st percentile barrel%, but his 86th percentile speed enabled him to make a moderate impact for the Marlins’ offense nonetheless.
vs. Fastballs: 143rd in xwOBA out of 423 hitters
vs. Offspeed: 107th in xwOBA out of 148 hitters
vs. Breaking: 100th in xwOBA out of 333 hitters
Despite his small frame, 5’10’’ and only 185 pounds, he managed to be a top-half producer against the league’s primary two pitch types — fastballs and breaking balls, measured by xwOBA. That, coupled with a modest 5.8% walk rate helped him get on base enough to steal 20 bases in only 117 games, which is a threshold only 40 players hit last season.
After returning from the injured list in late-July in 2024, Lopez had 14 SB and a 103 wRC+ in 63 games, with 24.5% of his balls in play being line-drives. As a rookie, he swung at too many pitches out of the strike zone, but still managed a respectable campaign as a result of his superb bat-to-ball ability and plus-speed. His excellent glove should secure him a near everyday role with the Marlins in 2025, offering him an opportunity to build on a promising start to his career.
Third Base, Connor Norby
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 269.5
2025 Steamer Projections: 18 HR, 64 RBI, .243 BA, 8.2 BB%, 27.3 K%, 95 wRC+
Contract: Pre-Arbitration
Connor Norby was selected in the 2nd round of the 2021 draft by the Orioles, but they decided to part ways with the highly-regarded young infielder last summer in a deal for Trevor Rogers as the club chased a playoff spot. The trade had less to do with Baltimore’s lack of belief in Norby and more to do with the fact that he was simply blocked by already established talent in the Orioles’ organization.
vs. Fastballs: 215th in xwOBA out of 423 hitters
At Triple-A in 2024, Norby had 17 HR and 13 SB in 94 games, while maintaining his impressive walk rates that he posted at the lower levels of the minor leagues. Following his arrival in Miami, his new team inserted him into the big-league lineup on an everyday basis down the stretch — he impressed, hitting 7 HR and posting a 108 wRC+ in 36 games.
There were certainly areas of concern as well, however. In a limited sample, Norby was one of the league’s most aggressive hitters, swinging 56.3% of the time. Of course, that included a disastrous chase rate, contributing to a ghastly 32.1 K%. Somehow, he still managed to walk at a 9.3% clip.
That walk rate is likely to come down in 2025 if he can’t learn to be more selective at the dish. The problem is that Norby has never been particularly selective. Among 247 hitters at Triple-A with 300+ PA last season, only 39 swung more frequently at pitches out of the zone.
Norby has undeniable power potential, and he is likely to get every opportunity to showcase it in 2025. If there is anything that holds back his development this summer, it’s likely to be an over-aggressive, easily exploitable approach at the plate.
Shortstop, Xavier Edwards
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 148.9
2025 Steamer Projections: 6 HR, 47 RBI, .283 BA, 9.6 BB%, 14.2 K%, 105 wRC+
Contract: Pre-Arbitration
Xavier Edwards had a tumultuous 2024 campaign, to say the least. The start of his season was delayed by a foot infection that hospitalized him and required multiple weeks of IVs. He didn’t make his season debut until June 7, and he didn’t become the team’s starting shortstop until July 2.
vs. Fastballs: 300th in xwOBA out of 423 hitters
vs. Breaking: 121st in xwOBA out of 333 hitters
From that point on, however, it was mostly gravy for the talented young middle infielder. He managed only 1 HR, but he stole 31 bases and posted a 129 wRC+ across his final 67 games. At only 5’10’’, 175 pounds, he’s never going to be someone who impacts the baseball with much authority, but excellent swing decisions and strong bat-to-ball skills help him get on base frequently enough to make a positive offensive impact.
Among 324 hitters with 250+ PA last season, only 35 players had a chase rate below 27% while maintaining an above average contact% on swings at pitches in the zone — 26 of them had a 100 wRC+ or better. It remains to be seen if Edwards can maintain his elite swing decisions across a full season in 2025, but his 2024 was an encouraging step in his development.
His defense leaves a lot to be desired, but he’s still only 25 years old and has the potential to get better. Don’t expect him to repeat his 128 wRC+ from a year ago, but he has the potential to be a fun, productive presence in Miami’s lineup during their rebuild as long as he continues to showcase a mature approach at the plate.
Left Field, Kyle Stowers
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 482.5
2025 Steamer Projections: 16 HR, 50 RBI, .226 BA, 8.6 BB%, 30.0 K%, 95 wRC+
Contract: Pre-Arbitration
Kyle Stowers also came over from Baltimore in last summer’s Tyler Rodgers trade, and similar to Connor Norby, he struggled mightily to make contact with the baseball down the stretch in 2024. During his time with Miami, Stowers struck out in 35.5% of his PA, struggling to a .186 BA and 56 wRC+ in 50 games.
vs. Fastballs: 389th in xwOBA out of 423 hitters
He was routinely overmatched by big-league fastballs, with only a .187 BA against that pitch type. Only 4 players had a higher whiff% against fastballs in 2024 than Stowers.
A lot of Stowers’ struggles can be attributed to an irresponsibly aggressive approach at the plate. Among 365 hitters with 200+ PA last season, Stowers ranked 304th in swing% at pitches out of the zone — meaning he chased bad pitches more than all but 61 other hitters. High strikeout rates were a problem for Stowers throughout his minor league career as well, making it unlikely that we see this problem go away anytime soon. He will still probably get close to 500 PA in 2025 to see if he can figure things out. That’s the state of the Miami offense right now.
Center Field, Derek Hill
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 484.2
2025 Steamer Projections: 6 HR, 27 RBI, .245 BA, 6.1 BB%, 27.1 K%, 86 wRC+
Contract: Pre-Arbitration
Like many of the Marlins’ other projected Opening Day bats, Derek Hill doesn’t inspire much confidence heading into 2025. In a limited sample size last summer, hill hit 7 HR in 53 games, but 5 of those HR came against fastballs. He hit only .226 with a 39.7% whiff rate against breaking pitches and .182 with a 58.3% whiff rate against offspeed offerings.
vs. Fastballs: 17th in xwOBA out of 423 hitters
Hill managed to be moderately productive when he was on the field in 2024, posting an 88 wRC+. Yet, even that underwhelming figure seems like it will be difficult for Hill to replicate this upcoming season if he continues to exhibit such poor plate discipline.
An over-aggressive approach led Hill to swing at far too many pitches out of the zone, resulting in an anemic 2.9% walk rate and 32.6% strikeout rate. He has 95th percentile speed and a solid glove in the outfield, but he can’t steal bases if he can’t get on base, and he is unlikely to get on base very often if he can’t exhibit better swing decisions. On a better team, Hill would likely be relegated to a bench role, being utilized primarily as a pinch-runner or late-inning defensive replacement. There isn’t much offensive upside here for a player who owns a 73 wRC+ across 161 MLB games, spanning 5 seasons.
Right Field, Griffin Conine
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 501.6
2025 Steamer Projections: 11 HR, 33 RBI, .215 BA, 8.8 BB%, 34.4 K%, 84 wRC+
Contract: Pre-Arbitration
Griffin Conine is a former 2nd round draft selection, but he certainly didn’t look like it during his MLB debut at 26 years old. He posted a 114 wRC+ in 30 games, but his 31.5 K% and 6.7 BB% don’t suggest that his limited-sample production is sustainable. Nor does his .373 BABIP, especially in relation to a line-drive rate that was well below the league average.
Conine, like most of his Miami teammates, has yet to show any semblance of good swing decisions in his early MLB tenure. In 2024, he was far too aggressive, allowing pitchers to easily bait him into swinging at pitches out of the strike zone. Of course, it’s much more difficult to consistently do damage at the plate when swinging at bad pitches.
Conine has some power potential, but he is 4 years removed from hitting 36 HR in 108 games in the minor leagues in 2021. His poor bat-to-ball skills have followed him at nearly every stop of his professional baseball journey, leading one to believe that he’s going to continue struggling to make contact this upcoming summer — especially if he can’t learn to hit anything other than a fastball. Conine might run into some baseballs now and again, but don’t expect a well-rounded Baseball Savant page from him in 2025.
Designated Hitter, Jesus Sanchez
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 244.0
2025 Steamer Projections: 21 HR, 71 RBI, .255 BA, 8.5 BB%, 25.5 K%, 110 wRC+
Contract: 1 year/$4.5M (2025), Free Agent: 2028
Jesus Sanchez might be the most established MLB offensive talent Miami has in their lineup heading into Opening Day in 2025, which is a sad state of affairs. Since the beginning of 2023, Sanchez has at least proven himself capable of hovering around league-average production at the plate over the course of a full-season sample size.
vs. Fastballs: 63rd in xwOBA out of 423 hitters
vs. Offspeed: 45th in xwOBA out of 148 hitters
vs. Breaking: 58th in xwOBA out of 333 hitters
In 2024, he even proved himself capable of being competitive in the box against all major pitch types, ranking in the top-63 in xwOBA against fastballs, breaking pitches, and offspeed offerings. To clarify, he only proved himself capable of hitting those pitches only if a RHP was on the mound.
Sanchez ended the year with a .276 BA and a 118 wRC+ against RHP, but only a .162 BA and 35 wRC+ against LHP — a seemingly unfixable trend at this point in his career. He still chases too many bad pitches as well, which significantly limits his overall upside.
This is a player with some of the best bat speed and power potential in the game, but without an effective approach that will allow that part of his game to show up on a consistent basis. If Sanchez is ever able to improve his swing decisions, he’s capable of taking a major leap forward. Entering his age-27 campaign, however, that developmental leap is growing increasingly unlikely.
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