Houston Astros - 2025 MLB Team Preview & Predictions
Previewing all 30 MLB teams in preparation for the 2025 MLB Season. Analysis and predictions for every offensive starter, starting pitcher, and high-leverage bullpen arm for each club.
2025 Houston Astros - Future Prediction
World Series Winner: +2000
AL Winner: +750
AL West Division Winner: +175
To Make Playoffs: -139
Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 87.5
In 2024, the Astros made the postseason for the 8th consecutive year, despite having the second worst record in the entire American League through May 8 — ahead of only the historically bad White Sox. From May 9 to the end of the regular season, Houston went 76-49, winning more games than any other team in the MLB en route to securing the AL West division crown for the 7th time in the last 8 years.
Still, the team failed to make it to the ALCS for the first time since 2016, and that feels important. Following nearly a decade of sustained excellence, there were undeniable cracks in roster construction, which have only been amplified this past offseason. Jim Crane, weary of signing star players to long-term contracts, let Alex Bregman leave for the Red Sox and traded Kyle Tucker the Cubs, making sure that the team wasn’t significantly invested in paying them substantial money as they aged into their 30s. Of course, he also approved signing 34-year old Christian Walker to a 3-year, $60M free agent deal. It’s clear that Crane and senior advisor Jeff Bagwell haven’t learned anything from the Jose Abreu debacle.
It’s important to note that Houston was really good in 2024, following their slow start. They thrived, despite Kyle Tucker breaking his leg and the starting pitching staff dealing with a flurry of injuries. That being said, Bregman, the team’s second most productive hitter from last season, won’t be back. And though the team performed well without Tucker, nobody would argue that the team is better off with him in Chicago this summer. Jose Altuve isn’t getting any younger, either, and now he’s inexplicably being asked to play left field. It’s probably unwise to count on Ronel Blanco outperforming his FIP by over a full run again in 2025, too.
Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown are as good of a 1-2 punch as there is in any rotation right now. However, there are significant question marks about what to expect for the other 60% of the team’s outings. The bullpen projects to be a strength again in 2025, but it’s worth noting that Bryan Abreu had the 2nd-most appearances of any reliever in baseball last season, and Josh Hader wasn’t exactly lightly used, either. It’s also highly improbable that this offense finishes much better than the league average — especially if there are any lingering impacts of Walker’s Spring Training oblique injury, or if we find out that Yordan Alvarez’s knee is actually a concern. Maybe Cam Smith plays the role of unexpected rookie hero, but there are a lot of ways in which 2025 could turn out to be underwhelming for the Astros.
Below, I take a look at each projected starter on the roster in preparation for the new season.
To Miss The Playoffs (+145), DraftKings
Catcher, Yainer Diaz
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 55.4
2025 Steamer Projections: 20 HR, 74 RBI, .282 BA, 4.4 BB%, 17.8 K%, 121 wRC+
Contract: Pre-Arbitration
Major League Baseball has been played since 1871. Last year, Yainer Diaz became only the 6th player in the history of the game to collect 100+ strikeouts, ground into 20+ double plays, and walk fewer than 25 times in a single season — h/t Baseball Prospectus.
vs. Fastballs: 81st in xwOBA out of 423 hitters
vs. Offspeed: 86th in xwOBA out of 148 hitters
vs. Breaking: 40th in xwOBA out of 333 hitters
Diaz’s 2024 campaign was the most productive of that sample, finishing with a 118 OPS+ in 148 games. His tendency to hit into double-plays, coupled with his allergy to walks, didn’t stop him from finishing in the top-86 in xwOBA against all major pitch types, either.
The larger question is simply whether or not he can continue such a charade. Diaz swings at everything, literally. Only 4 players swung more frequently in 2024 than Diaz, and none of them had better than a 95 wRC+.
Amazingly, Diaz still finished the year ranked in the 68th percentile in average exit velocity and 85th percentile in hard-hit%, despite swinging at so many pitches that are difficult to do damage against. His bat-to-ball skills are elite, and he’s proven over the last couple of seasons that he is more than capable of hitting the ball over the fence. If Diaz ever decides to be more selective at the plate, he could become a true star. To date, however, there exists no evidence suggesting that is something on his brain. He’s walked in only 4.7% of his PA during Spring Training as of this writing.
First Base, Christian Walker
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 95.4
2025 Steamer Projections: 27 HR, 83 RBI, .244 BA, 10.0 BB%, 23.0 K%, 125 wRC+
Contract: 3 years/$60M (2025-2027), Free Agent: 2028
Christian Walker is an elite defender at the cold corner, who has also turned into one of the more reliable power hitters in the game since turning 30 years old. Since the beginning of the 2022 season, he ranks 11th in all of baseball in home runs and 3rd among primary first basemen.
vs. Fastballs: 77th in xwOBA out of 423 hitters
vs. Offspeed: 7th in xwOBA out of 148 hitters
vs. Breaking: 238th in xwOBA out of 333 hitters
Last year, he continued to be one of the more selectively aggressive hitters in the game, rarely letting a pitch land in the heart of the zone, but showing good restraint on balls the further away they came from the middle of the plate. As a result, he maintained an above average BB% for the 4th consecutive year. He also did plenty of damage on contact, ranking in the 82nd percentile in average exit velocity and 86th percentile in hard-hit%.
Entering 2025, Walker has shown few signs of age-related decline, with his bat speed still clocking in among the best in the big leagues, and his zone-contact% holding firm from 2023. The primary concern for him heading into the new campaign is simply that he’s no longer young. He will be 34 years old the day after Opening Day and has secured a life-changing payday for him and his family — likely the last time he will enter free agency with significant interest.
He suffered an oblique injury during Spring Training earlier this month, but is expected to be ready for Opening Day. Walker remains a productive bat and a plus-glove, but he wouldn’t be the first player to see his performance diminish in the first year following a sizable new contract.
Second Base, Mauricio Dubon
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 459.3
2025 Steamer Projections: 6 HR, 34 RBI, .268 BA, 4.7 BB%, 13.6 K%, 96 wRC+
Contract: 1 year/$5M (2025), Free Agent: 2027
Mauricio Dubon will be moved to second base for the Astros in 2025, with the team hoping he will be able to improve their infield defense. But at what cost?
vs. Fastballs: 387th in xwOBA out of 423 hitters
vs. Breaking: 135th in xwOBA out of 333 hitters
Since joining the Astros prior to Opening Day in 2023, Dubon owns a 93 wRC+ across 269 games. During that span, he ranks 148th in wRC+, 176th in home runs, and 114th in stolen bases among 186 hitters to log 800+ PA. Only Ezequiel Tovar, Yainer Diaz, and Thairo Estrada have walked less frequently than Dubon across the last two seasons.
Dubon does have an excellent glove, but the runs he prevents defensively, he also prevents offensively. Only 5 hitters swung more frequently at pitches out of the zone than Dubon in 2024, and only 10 hitters had a lower hard-hit%. He profiles better as a utility man than someone who a team wants in the lineup on a daily basis.
Third Base, Isaac Paredes
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 193.2
2025 Steamer Projections: 23 HR, 72 RBI, .247 BA, 11.4 BB%, 16.6 K%, 127 wRC+
Contract: 1 year/$6.6M (2025), Free Agent: 2028
Isaac Paredes is the poster child for the “pull the ball in the air” movement. According to Baseball Savant, from 2022-2024, only 17.5% of batted balls were pulled in the air, but that subset was responsible for 66% of all home runs, producing a .547 batting average, 1.227 slugging percentage, and .733 wOBA.
vs. Fastballs: 354th in xwOBA out of 423 hitters
vs. Offspeed: 119th in xwOBA out of 148 hitters
vs. Breaking: 281st in xwOBA out of 333 hitters
Paredes led all of baseball in pulled air% in 2024, hitting 19 home runs, despite anemic exit velocities and poor bat speed. It was the third year in a row that he had hit at least 19 home runs and posted a 115 wRC+ or better.
In 2025, he has the added benefit of playing half of his games in Houston, where the Crawford Boxes are only 315 feet from home plate, down the left field line. Minute Maid Park ranked 8th most friendly, in terms of home run park factor, to RHB in 2024. and it stands to reason that Paredes’ approach makes the venue even more friendly to his unique skill set.
Paredes will never be a player who looks particularly talented, and he will almost never hit the majestic moonshots that fans most appreciate, but he has figured out how to maximize his abilities in a way that is increasingly appearing to be sustainable. He cut back on his chase rate in 2024 as well, helping him walk at a career-high rate. He figures to slot into the 2-hole for the Astros in 2025, and is likely to continue being a useful player, no matter how hard that may be to believe.
Shortstop, Jeremy Peña
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 163.3
2025 Steamer Projections: 16 HR, 66 RBI, .265 BA, 5.2 BB%, 18.7 K%, 108 wRC+
Contract: 1 year/$4.1M, Free Agent: 2028
Ahead of Opening Day in 2022, Jeremy Peña was the No. 4 ranked prospect in the MLB, getting ready to step in for Houston legend, Carlos Correa, who had just been Houston’s most valuable player on a team that won the AL Pennant and was within 2 games of a World Series title. He stepped into some big shoes, but performed well, hitting 22 home runs and posting a 102 wRC+ as a rookie while ranking in the 92nd percentile in Outs Above Average, defensively.
vs. Fastballs: 160th in xwOBA out of 423 hitters
vs. Offspeed: 84th in xwOBA out of 148 hitters
vs. Breaking: 151st in xwOBA out of 333 hitters
The subsequent two years have been a little bit of a disappointment for Peña, who has regressed, rather than taken the expected next step in his development. He hit only 10 home runs in 2023 and only 15 home runs in 2024, posting a 100 wRC+ or worse in both campaigns.
This spring, however, Peña has showcased a new approach at the plate, with a quieter toe-tap, rather than a big leg kick, in addition to placing more emphasis on swinging at better pitches. Peña has never had eye-popping exit velocities, but the reason for that could partly be explained by the fact that he has always been a hyper-aggressive hitter, who swings at a lot of bad pitches — pitches that are difficult to hit hard.
Entering 2025, Peña’s more repeatable swing mechanics and newfound focus on selective aggression should have him on everyone’s list of breakout candidates. He’s still only 26 years old and could be on the verge of his first 20-homer, 20 stolen base campaign if he stays healthy. There are genuine reasons to be excited here.
Left Field, Jose Altuve
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 55.0
2025 Steamer Projections: 20 HR, 62 RBI, .269 BA, 8.2 BB%, 17.2 K%, 121 wRC+
Contract: 5 years/$125M (2025-2029), Free Agent: 2030
Entering 2025, Jose Altuve has not played a single inning of professional baseball in the outfield, dating back to rookie ball in 2007. So, of course, the new leadership team for the Astros plans to make the 35-year old the team’s primary left fielder to open the new season. His introduction to the position during Spring Training has been anything but smooth, with a number of embarrassing mistakes going viral on the internet — or at least, as viral as a post about Spring Training will ever go.
vs. Fastballs: 172nd in xwOBA out of 423 hitters
vs. Offspeed: 104th in xwOBA out of 148 hitters
vs. Breaking: 109th in xwOBA out of 333 hitters
There is also the fact that Altuve is a very small human being, who is now firmly in his mid-30s. Since 2015, Altuve’s 2014 season in the only instance of a player 5’8’’ or shorter posting better than a 112 OPS+ in their age-34 season or older. Donovan Solano is the only other player in that sample who has posted better than a 100+ OPS at such short stature this late into his career, and he wasn’t an everyday player for the Twins or Padres in 2023 or 2024.
Last year, Altuve’s bat speed ranked in only the 15th percentile, with only a 13.1% fast-swing rate — well below the league average of 22.5%. His average exit velocity and hard-hit% were both down markedly from their 2021 peak, as was his contact% on swings at pitches in the zone. These are all tell-tale signs of age-related decline.
Making matters worse, Altuve has started chasing far more pitches out of the zone that he did during his prime, eroding his walk rate as a consequence. He can still be a quality bat for the Astros, but his days of being a star are likely behind him for good. Trying to get him to learn a new position, on top of fighting age-related decline, only adds to the difficulties that await him in 2025.
Center Field, Jake Meyers
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 452.6
2025 Steamer Projections: 11 HR, 43 RBI, .239 BA, 7.4 BB%, 24.5 K%, 99 wRC+
Contract: 1 year/$2.3M (2025), Free Agent: 2028
Jake Meyers is a prototypical glove-first player, who excels defensively in center field, but offers very little with the bat in his hands. In 2024, Meyers played in a career-high 148 games, but hit only 13 home runs and finished the year with an 86 wRC+. He ranked in the 29th percentile in average exit velocity, 32nd percentile in hard-hit%, and finished worse than the league average in both BB% and K%.
vs. Fastballs: 308th in xwOBA out of 423 hitters
vs. Breaking: 244th in xwOBA out of 333 hitters
Meyers was overwhelmed by fastballs for the second year in a row, and continued to whiff at an alarming rate against non-fastballs. Entering 2025, he’s posted a .171 BA or worse against breaking balls in consecutive years. He’s been a slightly above average bat against southpaws since the beginning of 2023, but his production against RHP leaves a lot to be desired. Houston will likely continue to tolerate him, though, due to his stellar defense and a lack of readily available alternatives at the position.
Right Field, Chas McCormick
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 432.3
2025 Steamer Projections: 11 HR, 39 RBI, .241 BA, 8.5 BB%, 25.9 K%, 104 wRC+
Contract: 1 year/$3.4M (2025), Free Agent: 2027
In 2023, Chas McCormick was a good fastball hitter who had his troubles with breaking stuff. In 2024, McCormick was simply a hitter who had troubles with everything — mostly as a result of swinging at everything.
vs. Fastballs: 217th in xwOBA out of 423 hitters
vs. Breaking: 285th in xwOBA out of 333 hitters
From 2023 to 2024, McCormick increased his swing rate from 48.5% to 52.6%, which included a dramatic increase in swings at pitches out of the zone. As a result, his contact% regressed considerably, leading to more strikeouts and fewer walks. The quality of his contact diminished as well, with his average exit velocity, barrel%, and hard-hit% all trending sharply in the wrong direction.
As of this writing, McCormick is hitting .161 with only 1 home run during Spring Training. Top prospect Cam Smith has received plenty of reps in the outfield over the last month and appears to be making a genuine push to open the 2025 season as the team’s everyday right fielder. After seeing McCormick’s fall from grace in 2024, and his lack of production in the spring, it would be difficult to blame the Astros if they ultimately went with the younger, higher-upside option to begin the new campaign.
Designated Hitter, Yordan Alvarez
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 16.7
2025 Steamer Projections: 35 HR, 101 RBI, .303 BA, 12.1 BB%, 17.0 K%, 173 wRC+
Contract: 6 years/$115M (2023-2028), Free Agent: 2029
Yordan Alvarez is on a short list of players who puts the fear of God in opposing pitchers when he steps in the box. Alvarez, standing 6’4’’, 237 pounds, is built like a more intimidating version of Negan from The Walking Dead, and causes even more destruction with his bat that AMC’s most notorious villain.
vs. Fastballs: 12th in xwOBA out of 423 hitters
vs. Offspeed: 16th in xwOBA out of 148 hitters
vs. Breaking: 13th in xwOBA out of 333 hitters
In 2024, Alvarez ranked in the 92nd percentile or better in average exit velocity, barrel%, hard-hit%, and bat speed. He continued to demolish both RHP and LHP, and finished last year ranked in the top-16 in xwOBA against all major pitch types for the second consecutive season, giving opposing pitchers no discernible way to make life difficult on him.
Last season, Alvarez was 1 of only 4 hitters to have a 10%+ barrel rate, 10%+ walk rate, and strikeout in fewer than 20% of his trips to the plate. He’s now done that in three straight seasons, consistently putting himself in a position to be among the most valued sluggers in the game.
If there is any minor concern for Alvarez heading into 2025, it’s related to his health. Since debuting in 2019, has been put on the non-COVID injured list 3 separate times, including once for knee surgery. On September 22, 2024, Alvarez injured his right knee sliding into second base, which kept him out of the lineup for the final six games of the regular season, and it was apparently severe enough that surgery was at least briefly in the realm of possibilities. A track record of knee issues, plus an injury that caused “a lot of damage” is nothing to gloss over. Baseball is better when Alvarez is healthy, so hopefully manager Joe Espada doesn’t ask his best hitter to play the outfield too frequently in 2025.
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