Arizona Diamondbacks - 2025 MLB Team Preview & Predictions
Previewing all 30 MLB teams in preparation for the 2025 MLB Season. Analysis and predictions for every offensive starter, starting pitcher, and high-leverage bullpen arm for each club.
2025 Arizona Diamondbacks - Future Prediction
World Series Winner: +3000
NL Winner: +1600
NL West Division Winner: +1000
To Make Playoffs: -110
Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 86
Following an underwhelming 2024 campaign in which the team’s starting pitchers finished 27th in ERA, 13th in FIP, 25th in WHIP, and 24th in K%, Arizona enters 2025 with one of the better starting pitching staffs in the big leagues. The free agent acquisition of Corbin Burnes gives the Diamondbacks 4 proven MLB starters, in addition to Brandon Pfaadt, Jordan Montgomery, and Ryne Nelson being in the mix for innings. The addition of Burnes, coupled with improved health from Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and Eduardo Rodriguez could quickly take this unit from a bottom-5 rotation in 2024 to a top-10 rotation in 2025.
Still, the team’s arm barn figures to cause fans headaches. Last year, Arizona’s bullpen finished 25th in ERA, 25th in FIP, 27th in WHIP, and 26th in K%. Unlike the rotation, which the front office heavily invested in during free agency, the team’s late-inning options didn’t receive any external help this past winter. Kendall Graveman, who had a 4.88 FIP and ghastly 12.8 BB% in 2024, was the only reliever who the team signed during the offseason.
The good news is that the team’s offense, which ranked 5th in HR, 1st in RBI, and 4th in wRC+ last season, returns nearly intact — and they could be even more productive in 2025. The Diamondbacks’ offense posted those impressive numbers last year, despite their franchise cornerstone, Corbin Carroll having only 2 HR and a .213 BA at the end of June. MVP-candidate Ketel Marte also missed 18 days due to an ankle sprain. Starting catcher and reigning Gold Glove winner, Gabriel Moreno, missed 50 days on the injured list as well. If Jordan Lawlar and/or Pavin Smith graduate to being consistent impact bats, this lineup has the potential to be one of the most consistent juggernauts in baseball.
Improved health across the roster could go a long way towards helping Arizona flirt with 90+ wins. The acquisition of Burnes and the imminent arrival of Lawlar offer even more upside. This is a club that has a very realistic chance of returning to the playoffs in 2025.
Below, I take a look at each projected starter on the roster in preparation for the new season.
OVER 86 Regular Season Wins (-110), Caesars
Catcher, Gabriel Moreno
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 189.4
2025 Steamer Projections: 10 HR, 53 RBI, .281 BA, 9.6 BB%, 16.3 K%, 116 wRC+
Contract: Pre-Arbitration
Following a breakout postseason in 2023, Gabriel Moreno was limited to only 97 games in 2024, landing on the injured list in June due to a sprained thumb, and then again in August with an adductor strain. Still, there were some positive things to take away from his age-24 campaign.
vs. Fastballs: 292nd in xwOBA out of 423 hitters
vs. Breaking: 129th in xwOBA out of 333 hitters
Despite not setting any Statcast records for exit velocity or bat speed, Moreno still managed to increase his barrel% for the third consecutive season, in part, due to continued progress cutting his groundball rate. Moreno was also 1 of only 37 hitters (min. 350 PA) to have a BB% higher than the league average while also striking out in fewer than 20% of his trips to the plate. From that list 30 players had a 101 wRC+ or better.
Moreno swung at pitches on the edge of the strike zone 9% less frequently than the league average, and he chased pitches out of the zone 4% less often than the league average. Such an approach provides him with a high offensive floor. It’s also quite possible that we haven’t yet seen his offensive ceiling, considering he’s only going to be 25 years old this summer, and is still yet to play more than 111 games in a single season.
Moreno is one of the better defensive backstops in all of baseball, already with a Gold Glove on his resume. Any additional value provided with the stick could make him one of the most valuable players at his position in the entire MLB.
First Base, Josh Naylor
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 95.1
2025 Steamer Projections: 24 HR, 87 RBI, .268 BA, 8.3 BB%, 15.9 K%, 116 wRC+
Contract: 1 year/$10.9M (2025), Free Agent: 2026
Josh Naylor set a new career-high with 31 HR last season, in no small part as a result of a dramatically improved approach at the plate. In 2023, he swung at pitches on the edge of the strike zone 11% more often than the league average hitter, and he chased more pitches out of the zone than all but 10 players (min. 400 PA). When a player swings at pitches out of the strike zone at such a high rate, it makes it difficult for them to consistently drive the ball with any amount of authority. Unsurprisingly, Naylor ended the year ranked below the 50th percentile in average exit velocity and barrel%.
That all changed, however, in 2024. Naylor jumped to the 64th percentile in average exit velocity, 55th percentile in barrel%, and managed to walk at his highest rate since his brief rookie campaign in 2019. He also posted a better-than-league-average wRC+ against southpaws for the second consecutive season, offering some evidence that his 2023 campaign was not a fluke.
vs. Fastballs: 70th in xwOBA out of 423 hitters
vs. Offspeed: 48th in xwOBA out of 148 hitters
vs. Breaking: 260th in xwOBA out of 333 hitters
Naylor should also see his batting average bounce back, to some extent, in 2025, assuming he can escape his awful BABIP luck from last year. Among 241 hitters with 350+ plate appearances in 2024, only 13 players had a lower average on balls in play.
At a minimum, Naylor represents a capable replacement in Arizona for the departure of Christian Walker. If last year’s improved approach at the dish is here to stay, it’s possible Naylor could even be an upgrade. It’s worth noting that Naylor is entering his free agent year — we have no shortage of examples of players finding an extra level of motivation and focus prior to entering the open market.
Second Base, Ketel Marte
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 28.9
2025 Steamer Projections: 27 HR, 86 RBI, .278 BA, 10.5 BB%, 18.1 K%, 132 wRC+
Contract: 5 years/$76M (2023-2027), plus 2028 club option
In a world where Shohei Ohtani doesn’t exist, Ketel Marte would have been firmly entrenched in late-season MVP conversations in the National League in 2024. Still, he finished 3rd in NL MVP voting, despite playing in only 136 games as a result of an ankle sprain that forced him to the injured list in mid-August.
Marte had no apparent weaknesses last summer. He was 1 of 9 players to rank in the top-50 in xwOBA against each pitch type (fastball, offspeed, breaking).
vs. Fastballs: 20th in xwOBA out of 423 hitters
vs. Offspeed: 49th in xwOBA out of 148 hitters
vs. Breaking: 29th in xwOBA out of 333 hitters
He continued mashing southpaws to the tune of a 190 wRC+, in addition to posting a 130 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. It didn’t matter whether he was at home or on the road — he had a 157 wRC+ at Chase Field and a 145 wRC+ when traveling.
If there is any concern for Marte heading into 2025, it’s that he’s now on the wrong side of 30 years old and is coming off a campaign in which he shattered his career norms. His 53.3% hard-hit rate was nearly 14% higher than his career mark and 9.4% higher than his prior three-year aggregate. His average exit velocity was 94.1 mph in 2024, which was significantly higher than his 89.9 mph mark for his career and his 90.8 mark from 2021-2023.
However, there is some evidence to suggest that Marte is simply getting more selectively aggressive with age. In 2024, he swung at 80% of the pitches he saw in the heart of the plate — a 5% year-over-year increase that could help to explain his seemingly incomprehensible gains in exit velocity and hard-hit rate. Notably, he still swung at pitches on the edge of the zone and out of the zone less frequently than the league average hitter as well.
Marte’s HR/FB rate from last season is likely unsustainable, but he can experience some moderate regression in that department and elsewhere, and still be one of the most productive second basemen in all of baseball. From 2021-2023, he ranked 5th among big-league keystones (min. 1,000 PA) in wRC+ — the floor is high here, and so is the ceiling, as we saw in 2024.
Third Base, Eugenio Suarez
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 169.1
2025 Steamer Projections: 22 HR, 71 RBI, .234 BA, 9.2 BB%, 28.6 K%, 103 wRC+
Contract: 8 years/$81M (2018-2025), Free Agent: 2026
Since 2018, Eugenio Suarez has the 6th-most HR in all of baseball, which is a testament to both his durability and his ability to mash. Only Marcus Semien, Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt, and Matt Olson have played more games than Suarez during that time — none of which deal with the physical demands of the hot corner on a daily basis.
Suarez’s power production is even more noteworthy when considering he played half of his home games in Seattle in 2022 and 2023, which is a place where flyballs go to die. Even still, he’s managed 30+ HR in 5 of his last non-COVID seasons, including every season that he’s played for a team not named the Mariners.
At some point, Suarez is likely to meet the inevitable challenges of age-related decline, but he might be able to stave off those monsters for at least one more year. Since 2015, in the Statcast Era, there have been (4) third basemen to hit 31+ HR in their age-33 campaign or older, and (3) other seasons in which a player has hit 25+ HR.
In 2024, he was still able to do solid damage against heaters and breaking stuff — a necessity for having success at the MLB level, given the evolution of pitch mixes in recent seasons.
vs. Fastballs: 120th in xwOBA out of 423 hitters
vs. Breaking: 109th in xwOBA out of 333 hitters
The biggest red flag from Suarez’s numbers last season was an alarming drop in walk rate, which was a function of him chasing more pitches than he had in years past. In fact, he swung at pitches out of the zone at a career-worst 30.5% rate.
The good news is that Suarez still ran into plenty of baseballs, ranking in the 78th percentile in barrel% and 63rd percentile in hard-hit%. His in-zone contact% ranked 17th among 41 players to hit 25+ HR last season as well, so there isn’t any reason to hit the panic button at this time.
Entering 2025, he remains an above-average defender with great durability, and a rare ability to do damage at the plate. He is a key component of one of the league’s most offensively-blessed infields.
Shortstop, Geraldo Perdomo
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 558.9
2025 Steamer Projections: 7 HR, 45 RBI, .252 BA, 10.8 BB%, 16.0 K%, 98 wRC+
Contract: 4 years/$45M (2026-2029), plus 2030 club option
If there is one member of the Arizona infield, who hasn’t pulled his weight offensively in recent years, it’s Geraldo Perdomo. Since debuting in 2021, Perdomo owns an 85 wRC+, which ranks 31st out of 42 shortstops (min. 1,000 PA) in that span.
Last season was no different for Perdomo, who had only 3 HR in 98 games, ranking far worse than the league average hitter in xwOBA against both fastballs and breaking stuff.
vs. Fastballs: 378th in xwOBA out of 423 hitters
vs. Breaking: 270th in xwOBA out of 333 hitters
Among 241 hitters with 350+ PA in 2024, only 4 players had a lower HR%, only 12 hitters had a lower hard-hit%, and only 15 hitters had a lower barrel%. Even more concerning is that Perdomo outperformed his expected stats by one of the highest rates in all of baseball. Only Connor Wong and Daulton Varsho had a larger positive difference between their wOBA and xwOBA, suggesting that Perdomo’s 101 wRC+ from last year is unlikely to be replicated in 2025.
The good news for Arizona is that they have Jordan Lawlar, the #29 overall prospect in baseball, on the verge of being ready to take over the mantle at shortstop. Perdomo is a good-enough backup and could be an asset as a super-utility option, thanks to his patient approach at the plate, decent speed, and occasionally excellent defense. He simply isn’t someone that the Diamondbacks should want earning 500 PA in 2025, with a team that has a legitimate opportunity to return to the postseason. The primary concern here is that his contract affords him more opportunities than are wise.
Left Field, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 217.4
2025 Steamer Projections: 17 HR, 74 RBI, .272 BA, 5.8 BB%, 18.2 K%, 107 wRC+
Contract: 3 years/$42M (2024-2026), plus 2027 club option
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has been one of the most consistent, albeit unspectacular, players in the big leagues across the last four seasons. Since 2021, he has posted between a 105 wRC+ and 115 wRC+ each year, offering a high-contact approach with the ability to flirt with 20 HR — something he’s done twice in that span.
vs. Fastballs: 150th in xwOBA out of 423 hitters
vs. Offspeed: 38th in xwOBA out of 148 hitters
vs. Breaking: 93rd in xwOBA out of 333 hitters
Perhaps the most important development for Gurriel Jr. in recent seasons has been improvements with his glove. Playing in the frequently spacious outfields of the NL West, Gurriel Jr. finished 2024 ranked in the 83rd percentile in Outs Above Average (OAA), following a 74th percentile finish in OAA in 2023. His newfound commitment to this part of his game was a big reason that Arizona’s defense finished last year ranked 6th in Deserved Runs Prevented and 3rd in Range Defense Added.
If there are any notable concerns here, they are related to approach. Gurriel Jr. walked only 5.2% of the time in 2024 — his lowest BB% since his debut season in 2018. He swung at more pitches on the edge of the zone and chased out of the zone more frequently than he did in 2023 or 2022. His barrel% dropped to significantly lower than the league average among everyday players, with a corresponding drop in hard-hit% and exit velocity as well.
As long as Gurriel Jr.’s glove remains elite, he will be an asset for the Diamondbacks. However, his slowly declining production at the plate could be less tolerable if he experiences any regression defensively.
Center Field, Jake McCarthy
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 225.9
2025 Steamer Projections: 11 HR, 58 RBI, .267 BA, 7.5 BB%, 17.8 K%, 105 wRC+
Contract: Pre-Arbitration
It’s highly unlikely that Jake McCarthy ever becomes someone who hits 20+ HR at the big-league level, but it’s nonetheless worth noting how much he improved at the plate in 2024. Playing in a career-high 142 games, he posted a 110 wRC+, and was serviceable against southpaws — even if the splits still left a lot to be desired.
vs. Fastballs: 253rd in xwOBA out of 423 hitters
vs. Offspeed: 132nd in xwOBA out of 148 hitters
vs. Breaking: 80th in xwOBA out of 333 hitters
McCarthy’s barrel% was lower than all but 3 hitters who logged 350+ PA last year, with his hard-hit% and exit velocity proving similarly uninspiring. Still, his plate discipline has come a long way since 2022, which enabled him to cut his strikeout rate to an impressive 15.8% last season — ranking in the 83rd percentile.
Factoring in that he has 98th percentile speed and is an excellent defender in center field, McCarthy proved plenty valuable to the Diamondbacks in a near everyday role. Still only 27 years old, it’s not out of the question that we could see slightly more production from him at the plate. He could threaten for 10 HR and 25 SB in 2025 — something only 20 players accomplished in 2024.
Right Field, Corbin Carroll
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 10.7
2025 Steamer Projections: 26 HR, 81 RBI, .263 BA, 10.5 BB%, 18.5 K%, 127 wRC+
Contract: 8 years/$111M (2023-2030), plus 2031 club option
Playing in his first full-season at the MLB level, Corbin Carroll did not disappoint. He finished the year with 25 HR and 54 stolen bases en route to posting a 133 wRC+ across 155 games. He was also one of the most aggressive base stealers in all of baseball.
Unfortunately, he didn’t take a linear step forward in 2024. Carroll slumped to a .213 BA and 76 wRC+ through the end of June, resulting in an eventual demotion to the bottom-third of the lineup. The good news is that Carroll’s talent didn’t disappear for the entirety of 2024, offering hope that the beginning of last season was the exception, rather than the norm for what to expect from him going forward.
From July 1 to the end of the regular season, Carroll hit 20 HR and posted a 139 wRC+ — the latter of which ranked 18th in all of baseball and 7th among qualified outfielders. His turnaround coincided with a mechanical adjustment, working to keep his stride length under control, offering additional evidence that his early-season struggles in 2024 are behind him.
vs. Fastballs: 222nd in xwOBA out of 423 hitters
vs. Offspeed: 26th in xwOBA out of 148 hitters
vs. Breaking: 162nd in xwOBA out of 333 hitters
Even in an underwhelming year, Carroll stole 35 bases, hit 22 HR and improved his plate discipline, which allowed him to walk at a double-digit clip. He was 1 of only 36 players in baseball with 20 HR and a 10%+ walk rate. Only Carroll and Shohei Ohtani managed 20 HR, a 10%+ walk rate, and 30+ SB. Arizona should be very excited to see what Carroll has in store for 2025 and beyond.
Designated Hitter, Pavin Smith
Fantasy Baseball ADP: 466.8
2025 Steamer Projections: 10 HR, 38 RBI, .248 BA, 11.2 BB%, 22.0 K%, 108 wRC+
Contract: 1 year/$1.5M (2025), Free Agent: 2028
Pavin Smith is likely one of the most talented players that nobody knows about. Playing in a limited role each of the last three seasons, Smith has hit 25 HR and posted a 98 wRC+ across a span of 204 games. He has walked in 12.2% of his PA in that stretch, which ranks 22nd out of 366 players who have logged 600+ PA since the beginning of 2021.
Even those aggregate numbers might be doing Smith a disservice. In 2024, he had his most productive season to date, posting a stellar 142 wRC+, with the majority of his trips to the plate coming against right-handed pitching. Among 549 players with at least 150 PA last year, Smith was 1 of only 28 hitters to post greater than a 10% walk rate while striking out in 20% of his PA — a list that includes names such as Kyle Tucker, Juan Soto, Yordan Alvarez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Ketel Marte, Mookie Betts, and other MVP-caliber talent.
Smith has a mature approach in the batter’s box and enters 2025 out of minor-league options, which virtually guarantees him a permanent role at the MLB level for the first time since 2021. It’s not crazy to think that he could hit 20 HR this summer, even if Arizona keeps him out of the lineup against southpaws.
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